Plays for Conference Championship Sunday

Football Betting Lines

01/19/2012 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Only two teams since the 2006 season have reached the Super Bowl by winning on the road in the conference championship round.

One of those squads, the New York Giants, who pulled the road trick following the 2007 season, is in action on Sunday against the San Francisco 49ers. The other team, last year's Green Bay Packers, will not have a chance to join the New England Patriots as the only repeat Super Bowl winner since 2000 because of their 37-20 loss to the Giants this past Sunday.

The team favored to win has fared well in recent years in the conference championship games, going 8-2 since 2006. Furthermore, the home team also has won eight of the last 10 games. Still, both the favorites and home teams are barely above the .500 mark against-the-spread with similar 6-4 marks.

Which two teams will reach Super Bowl XLVI? Let's take an inside look at the two games:

AFC

The first contest, in the AFC, pits Baltimore at New England. I mentioned last week the Ravens were a miserable 4-11 ATS in their previous 15 games when giving more than a touchdown. Well, they are also 1-5 ATS in their last six contests when getting that many points. The one time they covered a game came versus New England.

Baltimore also blew out the Patriots, 33-14, the last time the two teams met in postseason play. On the other hand, this New England squad is a lot different than the one from two seasons ago. That club won just 10 games overall after winning only four of its final eight regular-season games.

This year's team finished the regular season with eight consecutive victories and blew away Denver by 35 points in the divisional round last Saturday.

The Patriots do not have the best of records when favored by more than a touchdown, a mere 8-10-1 ATS in their last 19 games. Nonetheless, they snapped a very impressive streak last week, becoming the first AFC team that was favored by a touchdown or more to cover the spread in the divisional round since 2005.

Not only did the Pats end the winless stretch, they obliterated it with their 45-10 stomping of the Broncos. They are now averaging 37 points per game in their last nine, and even though the Ravens are a solid defensive team, that type of offensive production will more than likely continue, especially at home.

On the other side of the ball, New England has given up 20 points or more in six of its last seven, so the over might be an enticing play for bettors who like to play the totals. One would expect the Ravens to run up more than the 227 total yards they picked up against Houston, particularly against this Patriots defense.

NFC

San Francisco has to feel great about its win over New Orleans in the divisional round, but don't forget the Saints almost won the game despite turning the ball over five times. The 49ers came into the game with the No. 1 defense in the conference in both scoring and yards allowed and gave up 32 points and 472 total yards.

New York's offense might not be as prolific as the Saints, but the Giants have averaged 30 points per game over their last four contests. They are also 6-2 in their last eight road games. Going out to San Francisco will not faze them one bit, especially since they played there earlier in the season.

That game came down to the final minute with New York driving to tie the game at 27. Unfortunately for the Giants, they failed to convert on a 4th-and-2 at San Francisco's 10-yard line and that was the game.

The 49ers held on and covered the spread despite being outgained by 90 yards. The Giants also dominated the time of possession as they held the ball for almost 10 minutes longer. In addition, they were 9-for-17 on third- and fourth-down conversions, while San Francisco was 3-for-11.

The Giants' biggest negative statistic, outside of the final score, was two turnovers to one, and the second one, early in the fourth quarter, was crucial. The Niners scored what wound up being the game-winning touchdown just one play after intercepting Eli Manning for the second time.

The Giants came into San Francisco just one week after upsetting the New England Patriots, so a letdown was more than possible.

Getting back to last week, New York benefited from a Packers running attack that turned the ball over three times as well as from a receiving crew that failed to catch the football on a consistent basis. As was the case with both NFC games this past weekend, this Sunday's game could very well come down to turnovers.

Other than possible miscues, the two X-factors are Manning's health and the weather. Manning had to leave Wednesday's practice with a stomach illness, and rain is in the forecast all week long, so make sure to follow both the quarterback's progress and the weather forecast right up to game time.

THE PLAYS

Assuming Manning is 100-percent healthy, the best way to attack the two match-ups is by playing a six-point teaser with New England giving 1.5 and New York getting 8.5.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.

College Football Betting Tips From a Pro

While the NFL is the sport wagered on the heaviest, college football betting lines has become more and more popular as people realize it’s a game that can be beat. The NCAA football season gets longer each year with the addition of numerous bowl games and with that comes more opportunities for more money in your pocket, if handled correctly.

Betting on college football is not the same as with the NFL, so make sure you separate the two. Because of the vast number of teams, the parity between college football programs is slight and thus, you are going to see some high numbers in the NCAA. Teams favored by more than 40 points are not uncommon especially early in the season when teams playing their non-conference schedules.

The best advice when trying to tackle these enormous spreads and is to just stay away. A team that is favored by 40 points is favored by that many for a reason while teams getting 40 points are bad enough that they shouldn’t be touched. Set yourself a spread limit. Getting rid of these games will cut down on the number of contests that you need to handicap while staying away from backdoor or front-door covers.

What is a backdoor and front-door cover you ask? A backdoor cover is a team that is getting beat by more than the spread, but scores late to get within that number thus covering the spread. A front-door cover is just the opposite where the favorite scores late and covers the number they are favored by.

These front-door and backdoor covers are common when second and third string players enter games in college football and it can be the worst nightmare for some bettors. These players can also be your best friend, but ask any bettor and he will give you more instances on losing in this situation than winning. It just seems to work out that way even though everything evens out in the end.

College football betting has some of the softest lines of any sport and it’s being able to find these lines that will make you a successful college football handicapper. The NFL and NBA have the tightest lines around and while those sports can be beat by looking at situations and systems, college football doesn’t quite work that way. It’s much more manual, but when done correctly, it’s much more gratifying as well.

Getting into the nuts and bolts of college football means looking at the many stats in order to beat the number. As opposed to pro football, college football is less dependent on situations and angles and more on certain statistics. Rushing offense and defense, pass efficiency offense and defense and turnover margins are huge. These are vital in the NFL, but even more so when it comes to college football.

Being able to run the ball in college football has always been a key factor in the overall success of a team. The same adage also goes for teams who have the ability to stop the run. Putting these two factors together can produce some positive results in a team’s record both straight up and against the spread. These numbers show huge differences in teams and the spread may not take those into effect, which is where the value comes into play.

Passing yardage numbers both for and against can be a misinterpreted statistic. However, pass efficiency has always been one of the best ways to look at a teams’ passing game ability both offensively and defensively. But is it really a true indication of how they perform? I wouldn’t say so since they are raw passing numbers with nothing else taken into consideration.

I use pass efficiency ratings when doing my handicapping but I adjust my numbers based on a number of factors including power ratings, strength of schedules, personnel and injuries. This gives a much better picture of a team’s ability to pass effectively and also being able to defend the pass. Tweaking pass efficiency stats instead of raw passing yards is the key.

Turnovers are the single most frustrating, and at times the most gratifying, aspect of a college football lines, mostly because they are so unpredictable. They are part of the game and most of the time nothing can be done to control them. However, turnovers are contagious and they can carry over from game to game and season to season.

It’s important to know how to forecast these unforeseen events and how to use them to your advantage. You can find ways to give yourself an edge by looking at past histories of teams and coaches and how they have fared in turnover wars in the past. Instead of turnovers hurting you at the wrong times, find ways to use them to your advantage.

As you can see, college football handicapping is very labor intensive and isn’t just based on where teams are ranked in the AP and coaches polls. Experience, coaching and match-ups are all important since unlike the NFL, college teams turn over much more often with new personnel at most positions every single year. Keeping current on this information is vital.

Betting NCAA football can be lucrative if done correctly, but more importantly, it’s just plain enjoyable because it can be beat. College football is one of the best sports to watch with some of the best rivalries taking place in all of sports. The only downfall is that a championship isn’t decided on the field but on a computer-based system that is the Bowl Championship Series. That will change someday and we will all be better off for it.

To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your NCAA college football betting needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.