Slumping Cards turn to Wainwright in finale with Brewers

Baseball Betting Lines

08/18/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Milwaukee Brewers have gotten a first-hand look this year at just how dominating St. Louis Cardinals ace Adam Wainwright can be. Looking to play the role of spoiler, the team gets a chance this afternoon to deal the All-Star right-hander his first loss at home this season.

Milwaukee will try to solve Wainwright and stretch St. Louis' losing streak to a season high-tying four straight games today in the finale of a two-game set at Busch Stadium.

The Brewers handed the Cardinals a disheartening 3-2 setback on Tuesday night, getting all three unearned runs in the third inning after a Felipe Lopez fielding error. Prince Fielder hit into a double play right after the miscue that plated a run before Casey McGehee drilled a two-run homer.

Starting pitcher Dave Bush did his part for Milwaukee, allowing just four hits -- one a solo homer by Albert Pujols -- over six innings before exiting due to a blister on his right index finger. Though the Cardinals got to within a run in the eighth on a John Axford wild pitch, the closer recorded the final five outs to notch his 18th save.

"It's nice to be able to stick it to a team that's up there in our league right now," Axford said.

While Milwaukee won for just the third time in eight games, St. Louis dropped its third in a row, one shy of a season-worst four-game slide posted from June 6-9. The Cardinals fell two games back of Cincinnati for first place in the National League Central and 1 1/2 back of the Wild Card spot.

St. Louis hurler Jaime Garcia took the loss even though he gave up just the three unearned runs over six frames.

"I thought he was in some of his best form," Cardinals manager Tony La Russa said of Garcia. "I think he was outstanding."

La Russa has seen Wainwright in top form all year, and he hopes his hurler can keep it up tonight. Wainwright's 17 wins are tied with Colorado's Ubaldo Jimenez for most in the majors and he leads all of baseball with a 1.99 earned run average.

The 28-year-old has won three straight starts and seven of his past eight decisions. He carries a 21-inning scoreless streak into this outing and followed a two-hit shutout of the Marlins on Aug. 6 with seven innings of two- hit ball Wednesday versus the Reds, a victory that had put the Cardinals into first place in the standings.

Wainwright, who is 11-0 with a 1.22 ERA in 12 starts at home this year, has won both of his starts versus the Brewers this year, allowing just a run over 18 innings while striking out 17.

Fielder and Ryan Braun are a combined 0-for-14 with five strikeouts versus Wainwright this year, while Corey Hart has the lone RBI off him with a solo homer.

Drawing the tough task of opposing Wainwright is left-hander Randy Wolf, who has won back-to-back starts and has pitched to a 3.16 ERA in four outings since allowing 12 runs in a setback to the Pirates on July 21.

Wolf beat Arizona on Thursday even though he gave up four runs, seven hits and four walks over six innings, fanning eight while improving to 9-9 with a 4.86 ERA.

Wolf, who turns 34 on Sunday, beat the Cardinals on July 1 with 6 1/3 innings of one-run ball and is 4-6 with a 3.64 ERA in his career versus them.

He won't have to face Colby Rasmus, as the St. Louis outfielder is expected to be out of the starting lineup for a second game in a row due to a strained right calf. Rasmus did pinch-hit in last night's contest.

The Cardinals have won 15 of their last 25 versus the Brewers, though the clubs have split eight meetings this year at Busch Stadium.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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